#4 Auburn (5-0) vs. #12 North Carlina (4-1)

Both Auburn and North Carolina played in thrilling games last night in the first round of the Maui Invitational. Auburn vs. Iowa State was everything that we had expected. Iowa State had a lead as big as 18 at one point, but Auburn scraped and clawed their way back into the game and won by two points on a game-winning tip-in by Johni Broome in the final seconds. As for North Carolina, they were down by as many as 21 in the second half to Dayton, trailing 56-35. RJ Davis and Seth Trimble got it going and the Carolina defense forced the Flyers out of scoring areas and took care of the ball, unlike in the first half. It was very back and forth, but UNC pulled it out in the final minutes, also by two points, setting us up for another top 15 matchup on Tuesday in Maui. Both teams had to complete huge comebacks against good teams last night, so they are both on emotional highs. The challenge of this tournament is that you have to win on three straight days against top-level college basketball teams, so both Auburn and UNC have their work cut out for them, especially with the difference in their play styles.

Similar to yesterday’s preview, Auburn will have the advantage on the interior against North Carolina, but the Tar Heel guards will likely give the Tigers some trouble. UNC also has arguably the best player on the floor in RJ Davis, as he and Broome are both likely to be first-team All-Americans. Auburn now has two top 5 wins this season over Houston and Iowa State, so they are certainly battle tested, especially after coming back from 18 down last night. The way that the games were called yesterday in Maui has us concerned about the Tigers tonight. Teams spent a lot of time in the bonus yesterday with most handsy fouls being called. Auburn is a physical team but lacks lateral quickness, which could put UNC in the bonus a lot due to the shiftiness of their three-guard lineup of Cadeau, Trimble, and Davis. Auburn will have a clear advantage on the boards, but it’s hard to rebound free throws by a team that shoots 81.9% from the stripe as a team. The offensive glass and playing through the post will have to be where Auburn makes its money against the Tar Heels. However, UNC will not double Broome the way that Iowa State did last night, or at least Hubert Davis has not shown that in the past. If he watched that game from last night, he would see that Iowa State had success in doubling Broome considering he went roughly 10 minutes without scoring a point. Broome is going to get his, as we said yesterday, but if UNC can limit him and make others beat them, it could be a tough night for the Tigers.

UNC might live at the foul line. Their guards should be able to get downhill at will and with the physicality of Auburn, it could lead to a lot of fouls and bonus time for the Heels. Auburn does not have the guards to match up with North Carolina. RJ Davis is better than any guard that Iowa State had last night, and the way that Trimble has played, he might be better than any of them too. It will be tough for Carolina to keep Auburn off the glass, but they might just outscore Auburn due to the higher percentage shots that they are getting, whether that be layups or uncontested threes due to over-aggressiveness and heavy rotation, or getting to the foul line for what appears to be a layup for Hubert Davis’ squad. The key will be taking care of the ball. Auburn wants to get up and pressure, but they do not have the same caliber guard athletes as North Carolina. The Tar Heels will need to be disciplined and simple in what they do because if they turn it over the way they did against Dayton in the first half last night, there won’t be any coming back from 21 down against a Bruce Pearl-coached team. UNC has better guards and it is that simple. Now they just need to be simple in what they do against the pressure because they are quicker and can force Auburn into some tough situations because of the way that they play. 

Outlook for Auburn:

Auburn is going to need another big game from Johni Broome. He should have success because UNC does not tend to double the post. The Auburn guards will be the key. They need to be solid defensively and keep the ball in front without fouling. This could be difficult because of the quickness of the Carolina guards and the way that Bruce Pearl’s team likes to play. Auburn needs to attempt to turn Trimble and Cadeau into off the dribble jump shooters. Davis is going to get his, but if the Tigers do not give enough space to Trimble and Cadeau, they will get exactly what they want, which is layups at the rim and over-rotation leading to catch and shoot threes. Broome will need to be elite at the rim and stay out of foul trouble in this one because if he isn’t on the floor, not only will UNC be able to get by, but there also won’t be the same level of resistance at the rim. This is a tough matchup for Auburn. They should dominate the glass and in the post, but we are worried about Carolina getting whatever they want offensively and getting to the foul line all night long. If Auburn can dominate the glass and points in the paint like they should, and also play solid defense without fouling, they can move on to the championship in Maui.

Outlook for North Carolina:

The North Carolina guards should have a field day. There aren’t really any good, capable defenders to guard Davis, Trimble, and Cadeau. If they aren’t getting by at will, it will be because they are getting to the foul line where they shoot over 80%. The struggle will be on the interior because Auburn is great on the offensive glass and has one of the best players in the country in Broome to play through in the post. This will be a tough matchup for the UNC bigs, who will likely throw a slew of guys at Broome. The key for Carolina is letting Broome get his but limiting the rest. Auburn’s guards have not proven to be that good thus far, so UNC needs to force them to beat them and not overreact to the potential of early success. If Carolina’s guards are disciplined and simple in what they do, they should be able to get what they want and be able to outscore Auburn, regardless of how much they get dominated on the boards. If they can do these things, the Tar Heels will advance to the championship against the winner of Memphis and Michigan State.

The Final Word:

The Maui Invitational never fails to deliver. After an awesome first round of games, we get another great game like this one in round two the very next day. Auburn will have its work cut out for them at the guard position for the second day in a row, which is tough on the body, especially for a team that isn’t very laterally gifted against elite guard play. North Carolina will have a tough time on the interior and on the glass, so this is truly a clash of styles. It should be another exciting game in Maui, but ultimately, North Carolina has great guard play that will be too difficult to overcome for the Tiger defense. It will go down to the wire because of Auburn’s advantage inside, but UNC’s guards will be able to get downhill, create their own shots, and get to the foul line at will against the Auburn defense. Expect North Carolina, who was staring at an early exit against Dayton last night, to advance to the Maui Invitational championship behind a strong performance from RJ Davis and their guards.