#4 Auburn (4-0) vs. #5 Iowa State (3-0)

The best game of the Maui Invitational is happening in the first round. For most people, the winner of this tournament is whoever wins between Iowa State and Auburn on Monday night. This game is a top 5 matchup that will put both teams to the test. Iowa State hasn’t played anyone yet, so this will be their first real test against a team in Auburn that has already beaten Houston, who is a lot of people’s best team in the country. Unfortunately, this game had to come in the first round and not in the championship, but it is great that we are getting this game at all, regardless of what round it is in.

Auburn has the best player in this game in Johni Broome who comes in averaging 20 points and 11.3 rebounds to go along with 3 blocks a game. Auburn is already battle-tested with a neutral court win against Houston by 6 points back on the first weekend of the season, so do not expect them to be caught up in the moment like Iowa State might be to start. The best team Iowa State has played is Kansas City (maybe), so this will be a significant jump in competition. Auburn plays a physical style of defense with long athletes who can disrupt most teams. This will be a test for them with Iowa State’s offensive strength being their guard group. The Cyclones are much more offensively gifted than they have been in years past, which is what makes them more of a threat on the national level. Auburn is allowing just 59.3 points per game, good for 19th in the country, so the defense is no joke, especially with the rim protection of Johni Broome. However, defense tends to go out the window in Maui because of the soft rims. These games are typically very high scoring and Iowa State’s guards could make that happen if Auburn is not careful. Offensively, Auburn has been very efficient thus far, shooting over 55% from the field and 37% from beyond the arc, but this is an Iowa State team that has always been fantastic defensively. As I said, the Cyclones have not been tested yet, so their 50.7 points allowed per game, good for first in the country, is a bit misleading but they are consistently in the top 20 year after year. If Auburn can keep up their offensive output, and given their defensive strengths, they have the ability to pick up a second top 5 win before the calendar turns to December.

This is an Iowa State team that I am very excited about, as everyone should be. The defense has always been elite, but head coach TJ Otzelberger has built quite the offensive powerhouse in Ames too. The Cyclones have six guys averaging 9.3 points or more, and the crazy part is, they have not even shot it well yet, especially from distance. Outside of Curtis Jones, they have struggled from three, as they sit at just 31%. Expect some positive regression, especially in Maui where the rims are friendly. This could be a big trip for the Cyclones who tend to fare very well in these mid-season tournaments because it could get them on track shooting the ball and put the doubters who say they haven’t played anyone yet to rest with a first-round win over Auburn. Iowa State is led by a great group of guards led of Tamin Lipsey, Keshon Gilbert, and the aforementioned Curtis Jones. These guys are also great point of attack defenders, which could give Auburn some trouble because their guard group is not nearly to the level of Iowa State’s. JP Pegues, who was initially thought to be a big get in the portal for Bruce Pearl, has not panned out as he has moved to the bench in a reduced role. This Iowa State offense has the ability to hang with anyone, but their success in this game will come if they can disrupt the Auburn guards and if Joshua Jefferson and Dishon Jackson can limit Broome on the interior. Auburn’s athleticism, length, and physicality could pose some problems for Iowa State offensively, but they are very under control and take care of the ball at an elite rate. TJ Otzelberger’s squad has a chance to make a statement in the first round in Maui by taking down an Auburn team that some people say is the best team in the country. For the longest time, the BIG 12 talk has been surrounded by Kansas, Baylor, and now Houston for the last two years, but the talent of Iowa State’s team can change that this year.

Outlook for Auburn:

Auburn’s guards vs. Iowa State’s guards will be an interesting matchup in this game. The strength of Auburn’s team is in the front court with Broome, Chaney Johnson, and Chad Baker-Mazara. The backcourt is a different story with Denver Jones, Miles Kelly, Tahaad Pettiford, and JP Pegues. I think the guard group will pose more of a problem for Auburn offensively than defensively because they have the athleticism and physicality to disrupt the Iowa State guards just as they did to Houston. Even if the Iowa State guards are able to attack the rim at a high rate, the Tigers have elite rim protection in Broome to protect them. Iowa State’s defense is one of the top units in the country, so Auburn will need to continue to make shots at a high rate because it will not be as easy for these guards to create against the elite backcourt of Iowa State. TJ Otzelberger will also have a plan in place to limit Broome and force others to make shots and beat them. Broome will get his, but it will come down to the others stepping up for Auburn. Expect Bruce Pearl’s squad to be ready to go for the first round in Maui.

Outlook for Iowa State:

Iowa State needs to shoot it better from three, especially against a physical team like Auburn that has rim protection to make it difficult for them to get to the rim. As I said previously, expect positive regression in the shooting department for the Cyclones, but if they do not shoot it well, it could be a tough night on the offensive end. Luckily for them, they have one of the best defenses in the country that will be able to disrupt the Auburn guards and force them to make shots because there is no way that the Cyclones just allow Johni Broome to beat them. They are going to send doubles and force the ball out of his hands, which will require the Auburn guards to knock down shots, but there are guys that Otzelberger will live with shooting the three on the Tigers. With the friendly rims in Maui, expect Iowa State to shoot the three much more efficiently, but if they don’t it will be difficult for them to win due to Auburn’s athleticism and physicality on the interior.

The Final Word:

This is an awesome game to start Feast Week off with. Auburn and Iowa State are two top 5 teams who both have championship aspirations not only during this tournament but in March. Auburn will depend more on its interior players, while Iowa State will rely on its guards, which will make for an exciting game because both teams are great on the defensive end. If Iowa State shoots the three more efficiently, they should end Monday night victorious, but there is something about this Auburn team and the way that they play that I think will disrupt this Iowa State offense who has not played anyone with this level of intensity yet. Expect a great game that goes down to the wire, but ultimately, it will be Auburn and the best player on the floor in Johni Broome who prevail on their crash course to a Maui championship.