#2 Auburn (7-0) at #9 Duke (5-2)

Auburn enters Cameron Indoor tonight on the heels of a Maui Invitational tournament championship last week where they beat Iowa State, North Carolina, and Memphis on three consecutive days. As for Duke, they handled business last Friday against Seattle and lost to Kansas in Las Vegas on Tuesday. The Blue Devils are now 0-2 in their big-time games this season, losing close ones to Kentucky and Kansas on neutral courts. This will be Auburn’s first true road game at one of, if not the toughest place to play in the country. As mentioned above, Duke has lost both of their key games on a neutral floor, but tonight will be different with the backing of the Cameron Crazies behind them. Auburn will need to put their Maui win behind them very quickly and lock in if they want to come out of Durham with a victory. Duke should be ready for this game to put their first high-profile victory on their resume against one of the best teams in the country.

Outlook for Auburn:

Unlike most of their games so far, Auburn will not have as big of an advantage on the interior against Duke. Duke has the size and versatility to match up with them and has shown the ability to keep big teams off the offensive glass. Between Khaman Maluach, Cooper Flagg, and Maliq Brown, the Duke bigs will limit the second-chance opportunities that Auburn thrives off. Broome will still be the toughest cover on the floor, especially if Maluach can’t stay on the court. However, Brown has been able to do a solid job in guarding the paint despite being undersized against most elite big men. Auburn’s guard play is going to have to be great to come out of Cameron with a victory, which has not been the case thus far. Tahaad Pettiford has been spectacular in big games, so the Tigers have that going for them. They are going to need that type of performance out of him again tonight, along with strong games from Denver Jones and Miles Kelly. Duke’s guards have not been great overall thus far, but the one thing they are good at is defense. Tyrese Proctor, Sion James, and Caleb Foster should be able to bother these Auburn guards. Chad Baker-Mazara has been fantastic for the Tigers so far as their x-factor, but this will not be a great matchup for him. He will likely draw Cooper Flagg much of the game, especially when Dylan Cardwell is off the floor, and Flagg is one of the most elite defenders in the country. He can be undisciplined at times, but it will be difficult for Baker-Mazara to provide the scoring boost that he gave the Tigers in Maui in this matchup. If Auburn is going to take down Duke on the road, their guards are going to have to be great and Broome is going to have to continue to play like the best player in the country.

Outlook for Duke:

Duke needs a big-time victory. This is a great opportunity for them against the team that has played like the best team in the country so far. Auburn has been dominant and picked up several marquee wins against Houston, Iowa State, and North Carolina. Duke has nothing like that so far. Expect Cameron Indoor to be rocking and ready to go tonight. With a 9:15 tip against second-ranked Auburn, there has been build-up all day for this game. The major concern for the Blue Devils, as we have talked about in recent podcast episodes, is the half-court offense, particularly when it comes to late-game execution. Duke doesn’t have the kind of guards that can get downhill and create offense for others, so they have had to play through Cooper Flagg. Flagg is great, but when they do this, it has sometimes meant that there is very little movement off the ball and it ends up being a lot of isolation basketball. This will likely change as the season wears on and Duke figures things out with this group. Auburn will be physical with Duke as they are with every team, which could hurt Duke’s half-court offense if the refs allow the game to be physical and the Tigers can push Duke off their spots. If Scheyer’s squad can be patient offensively and utilize shot fakes, they should be able to expose the undisciplined Tiger defense. Duke’s defense is the part of their team that should have success against Auburn because Bruce Pearl’s guards are not very talented offensively. Duke has guards that can bother opponents with length and physicality, which could lead to some turnovers and easy offense via transition buckets. Duke also has the size and versatility to switch screens and rebound against guys like Johni Broome and Dylan Cardwell. Cardwell’s minutes might end up being limited in this game because the Tigers will likely want Baker-Mazara on Flagg, which means Broome/Cardwell will have to guard Knueppel or someone like that. If Duke can limit Auburn on the offensive glass as they have done with other teams, they should be in a good spot because they are going to be able to win the matchups on the perimeter most of the time. Broome will get his because he is an elite player, but if Duke can limit those around him like I think they can, they should be able to come away with a win.

The Final Word:

Duke needs this one more than Auburn. Auburn might still be on their Maui championship hangover. This is Auburn’s first real road game and it is against a top-level opponent in one of the toughest gyms to play in the country. Duke’s ability to guard and defensive rebound will shine through against Auburn. Duke may still struggle at times on the offensive end, but their defense will create enough offense in this game. Auburn will need outstanding performances from their guards and Broome will need to be what he has been, but I think it is more likely that Duke’s defense wins out. Flagg and company will do enough offensively and dominate the defensive end, finishing most possessions with one shot attempt by Auburn. Look for Duke to show up in a big way in front of their home crowd for what will be the second loudest Cameron Indoor game this season behind the UNC game. Duke wins and covers the spread, sending Bruce Pearl’s team back home with their first loss of the season.