Arkansas (5-2) at Miami (3-4)

Arkansas has failed to win either of its two games against power schools so far this season losing to both Baylor and Illinois on neutral courts. They have struggled offensively, especially in those two games as they appear to have not found a flow or rotation that works for them yet. This was a concern coming in given all the players that were key pieces at their previous school or in high school. As for Miami, they have struggled mightily. They have dropped their last four games including a home loss to Charleston Southern on Saturday. Granted, Nijel Pack was out, but a team projected to finish in the top six of the ACC should not lose to Charleston Southern with any of the players on their roster. The Miami defense has looked very poor early in the season, especially over the last four where the lowest they have given up is 77 to VCU. Both teams are coming off losses on Saturday and have plenty of issues that need correction. Miami is at home, so they should be hungry to respond following their losing streak, but beating Arkansas will not be a walk in the park.

Outlook for Arkansas:

As previously mentioned, Arkansas has struggled out of the gate on the offensive end. If you have watched them, it has been the Adou Thiero show. They throw the ball to him and let him go to work. The Razorbacks have a much more talented team than what they are utilizing right now. Johnell Davis was arguably the best addition in the portal and Calipari has misused him so far. Davis is averaging 8 points a game on roughly 40 percent shooting and he does not look comfortable at all. The big-man rotation has also been tough to figure out. We praised the frontcourt depth of the Razorbacks coming into the season, but Zvonimir Ivisic and Adou Theiro have played the bulk of the frontcourt minutes. Trevon Brazile is barely playing at this point and Jonas Aidoo, another great addition in the portal, appears to still be injured and barely playing. Brazile is a guy who would greatly help the Arkansas offense because of his ability to space the floor, and he can even play some small ball five like he did last year, but Calipari refuses to go there and continues to play Big Z and Thiero the majority of the minutes. Along with Davis’ struggles, Boogie Fland and DJ Wagner have been up and down. They have shown flashes of what they are capable of, but in a game on Saturday against a quality opponent, they were both nowhere to be found. This is a team that struggles to shoot the ball from the perimeter and relies on offensive rebounding and attacking downhill to generate offense. Miami does not have the best backcourt defense, so Arkansas should be able to exploit this part of the Hurricane defense, especially with the way Miami has been playing on that end of the court. Arkansas most likely won’t be able to thrive on the offensive glass as much as they typically should be able to because of the frontcourt of Lynn Kidd, Brandon Johnson, and Matthew Cleveland. The key to the game for Arkansas will be their guards attacking the weak defensive backcourt of Jalil Bethea and Jalen Blackmon, as it sounds like Nijel Pack is going to miss this game and maybe even a couple more weeks.

Outlook for Miami:

Miami’s offense has not been the problem. Leading scorer Nijel Pack is not going to play tonight so more will be asked of others on Miami, but overall, they will be fine on that side of the court. They are shooting 50% from the field and 36.4% from three while averaging nearly 84 points a game. It has been the defense of the Hurricanes that has severely struggled. They are not creating turnovers like a Jim Larranaga-led team typically does, and this is in large part due to the weak defensive backcourt. Pack is not an elite defender, and neither are Blackmon and Bethea. If Arkansas is smart, they will attack those guys all night because of what Miami does have going for them on the defensive end in this matchup. Miami will be able to limit Arkansas’ second chance points with the frontcourt size of Lynn Kidd, Brandon Johnson, and Matthew Cleveland. The three of them are combining to average 19 rebounds a game so that part of the defense should be sound in this matchup. This will be massive because Arkansas does not shoot the ball well from distance, so if Miami can force them to take those shots, then they should be able to control the Razorback offense. Against good competition, the Arkansas defense has shown its flaws, so expect Miami to be able to score with them. It will just be a matter of pride in this game for the Miami defense. They can’t have a good taste in their mouth following Saturday’s loss, so they should be hungry, especially on the defensive end, to control the basketball and play with high energy giving multiple efforts at all times. If the Hurricanes can do that, then they might be able to right the ship with a massive home win.

The Final Word:

This is a game that both Arkansas and Miami probably feel like they need to win. Arkansas hasn’t beaten anyone yet and Miami has lost four straight including some games to inferior opponents. Miami is better than what their record or the eye test says. It will be challenging without Nijel Pack because it will mean more offensive responsibility on the plate of ASUN transfer Jalen Blackmon and freshman Jalil Bethea. Expect the Hurricanes to play through Brandon Johnson and Lynn Kidd a lot more in this game as they attempt to control the tempo due to their defensive issues. As for Arkansas, they still have a lot to figure out. Without question, they are the more talented team in this matchup. However, they haven’t played to that potential yet and it is a lot tougher to play on the road than it is on a neutral site against power teams, especially if you struggle to score and make perimeter shots. Miami should be able to limit Arkansas on the glass, so as previously mentioned, it will come down to the guards. If Arkansas takes advantage of the weak Miami backcourt defense, then they should come out with a road victory. If Miami keeps the ball in front and holds Arkansas to one shot most of the time, then they might be able to bounce back and upset the Razorbacks. As for a prediction, I expect Miami to play the hardest that they have all year on the defensive end. This is a good buy-low spot on the Hurricanes. A large part of me thinks that they will hand Arkansas their second straight loss, but where they are getting 5 points here, I would feel much more comfortable saying that the Hurricanes will keep it within that number at home.