Arizona Wildcats vs Wisconsin Badgers Preview

The Arizona Wildcats and Wisconsin Badgers will face off at the Kohl Center in what will be each of their first real tests of the young season. This is the return game for when these teams matched up in Tucson last season, where the Wildcats blitzed the Badgers en route to a 98-73 victory. However, we should expect a more tightly contested game this time around. 

Arizona Wildcats

The Wildcats look as they always do early in the season. They play at a breakneck pace and try to overwhelm opponents with their speed and athleticism. That is exactly what they have done so far, as their average margin of victory is nearly 45 points through 2 games. Granted this has been against low major competition, the relentlessness on the glass and their ability to get out and run off turnovers is an area that nearly every team in the country will have problems with. Led by Tobe Awaka, Trey Townsend, Henri Veesar, and Carter Bryant, the frontcourt is especially mobile, which makes them extremely difficult to defend in transition no matter how much you emphasize stopping them.

The backcourt has some athleticism as well, and they are especially great on the defensive end with the trio of Caleb Love, Jaden Bradley, and KJ Lewis. This group perfectly fits Tommy Lloyd’s more open style, and they seem to be playing off of each other well in the early going. One area of concern for the backcourt is the depth, as there aren't any proven power conference guards on their bench. Conrad Martinez and Anthony Dell’Orso look like the best options, but they have their deficiencies on both sides of the ball, so we should expect the starting perimeter group to play major minutes all season long. 

Wisconsin Badgers

We know what we are getting style wise from the Badgers year in and year out, and that is a methodical pace and a team that is rock solid on both ends of the floor. Nothing stands out for Wisconsin from a talent standpoint, but they are elite at taking care of the basketball, and are always trying to find a quality shot whether that is through the post up game or trying to get shooters open off screens. 

No true star has yet to emerge for this team, but they have a fair amount of underrated scorers they can go to. Missouri transfer John Tonje has been the bright spot in the backcourt thus far, as he has shown efficiency from all areas of the court. Add in pieces like Max Klesmit, John Blackwell, and Kamari McGee and you have yourself a perimeter group that shouldn’t be overlooked. As for the frontcourt, 7-foot Sophomore Nolan Winter has been a pleasant surprise and has provided versatility at the power forward position. Pairing him with Steven Crowl has added to a defensive floor that was already high under Greg Gard, giving the Badgers some added rim protection. 

Areas to exploit for Arizona

The biggest key to success in tonight's game for the Wildcats is getting stops to be able to get out in transition as frequently as possible. Forcing 15+ turnovers is probably not a realistic outcome against a Badgers team that is perennially elite when it comes to ball security, but the Wildcats perimeter defenders can make life hard on the not so athletic Badger backcourt. Generating stops to get out in transition is easier said than done against Wisconsin, as they value preventing teams from turning games into a track meet. Wisconsin was 5th nationally in preventing transition opportunities last season but ranked in just the 6th percentile when trying to defend those play types, so if the Wildcats get these opportunities, they will have plenty of success just like they did last season when they put up 98 points. Getting stops is the easiest way to play faster, and they should be able to do that in this matchup.

Arizona also dominated Wisconsin on the glass in last year’s matchup, which is an area to be concerned about if you’re Greg Gard. The Wildcats won the rebound battle 39-30 in Tucson, and if they can do the same this time around, they should be able to walk out of the Kohl Center with a win.

Areas to exploit for Wisconsin

We have talked about pace a lot, but one of the only ways Wisconsin can win this game is by controlling the tempo. Last season’s matchup was played at 76 possessions a piece, which is a way higher possession count than a normal game (67.6 is average), so Wisconsin will need to keep the pace closer to the average to give themselves a chance. Holding their own on the defensive glass will be key as well, and they have the size, at least in the frontcourt, that can slow down Arizona at the very least.

One weakness for Arizona is with the shot making depth from the guard group. Outside of Love (who is inconsistent), there isn’t anyone they can really trust to consistently hit perimeter shots or create offense for themselves at a high level. This may play into the hands of Gard’s defensive scheme, as he forces opposing guards to become shotmakers off the dribble and prevents spot up opportunities as much as possible. If Wisconsin can force Caleb Love and Jaden Bradley to operate in pick and roll and live in the mid range, this defense will have a great chance of getting consistent stops. 

The Final Word

Wisconsin will be seeking revenge for their blowout loss in Tucson last season, but they will need to play far better in many areas to get the job done tonight. This group is most likely better suited to contend with Arizona on the glass, and that in itself should keep them from getting blown out again. However, it may be the Arizona defense that disrupts the less athletic Wisconsin guard group, and they should get enough stops to get into their transition game to ultimately come out with the win. I anticipate a much lower scoring contest than last year’s matchup, but with Arizona coming out with a road victory. Arizona wins 74-67.