Louisville Cardinals
2023-2024 Result: 8-24 Record (3-17 ACC), No Postseason appearance
Projected Starting Lineup
Head Coach: Pat Kelsey (1st season)
Guard: Chucky Hepburn (SR)
Guard: Aboubacar Traore (SR)
Guard: Terrence Edwards Jr (JR)
Forward: J’Vonne Hadley (5th year)
Forward: James Scott (SO)
Key Additions
Chucky Hepburn (Wisconsin)
Koren Johnson (Washington)
J’Vonne Hadley (Colorado)
Terrence Edwards Jr (James Madison)
Kasean Pryor (South Florida)
Noah Waterman (BYU)
James Scott (Charleston)
Reyne Smith (Charleston)
Aboubacar Traore (Long Beach State)
Khani Rooths (4-star recruit)
Key Losses
JJ Traynor
Ty-Laur Johnson
Skyy Clark
Mike James
Tre White
Brandon Huntley-Hatfield
After a much needed reset for this Louisville program, the Cardinals decided to fire Kenny Payne and move on to one of the most sought after coaches in the mid major ranks in Pat Kelsey (College of Charleston). This new coaching hire came with a complete roster rebuild as every single projected rotation player was at a different school a season ago. Kelsey dove into the portal right away and recruited players that match his style of play perfectly. Floor spacing and versatility is extremely important in Kelsey’s system, and he addressed that by adding Chucky Hepburn, Koren Johnson, Terrence Edwards Jr, Kasean Pryor and more.
This offense projects to be one of the more volatile units in the entire country, as Pat Kelsey will have this group of shooters firing away at will from beyond the arc and playing with an extremely fast tempo. Louisville does have the shooters to be fine in this system as almost every lineup combination will have at least 4 capable shooters on the floor at a time. Even in the frontcourt they will have the likes of Kasean Pryor and Noah Waterman who can space the floor and handle the ball to make plays for others. Having these stretch bigs is huge for an offense, as it will force opposing bigs out to the perimeter and create driving lanes for guys like Terrence Edwards and J’Vonne Hadley. While having all of this shooting is great, the Cardinals are going to be very dependent on having good shooting nights due to the fact they don’t have an elite rim presence. The lack of scoring inside the arc and offensive rebounding concerns may bring some frustrating nights for Louisville as they will most likely allow lesser competition to hang around when they don’t shoot it well. Although I am pretty high on this backcourt of Chucky Hepburn and Koren Johnson, they may not bring enough playmaking ability to negate Louisville’s overall lack of rim presence.
There are definitely some concerns on the defensive side of the floor. The main concern is rim protection as I am certainly not high on Pryor or Waterman’s ability to protect the rim at an ACC level. The frontcourt’s ability to defend multiple positions will help keep opposing teams out of the paint, but the Cardinals may struggle to contain power conference centers. The lack of size may also create some rebounding issues against bigger competition, but Pryor, Waterman and Hadley have surprisingly shown some solid defensive rebounding numbers throughout their career. One area where this defense could be interesting is in the turnover department. Forcing turnovers isn’t something Pat Kelsey defenses have been known for, but the speed and versatility of this unit, especially in the backcourt, is something to watch out for. Hepburn and Johnson have shown they can be defensive playmakers (3.9% and 2.8% stl rate), so that could help make up for the overall lack of rim protection and rebounding. Overall, I am not very high on the Cardinals defensive unit.
This new era of Louisville basketball will be very intriguing to watch, as they will be able to take mostly any team in the country down with a hot shooting night. But this may ultimately be their kryptonite as well, as their lack of physicality along with a poor shooting performance will allow lesser competition to take them down on any given night. If the Cardinals can figure out their lineup rotations early enough to give them solid balance, I will be very high on them, but if not it may be a disappointing season. This team should be good enough to finish in the top half of the ACC with the upside to finish in the top 4, but they will be a little too volatile to compete for an ACC championship in the 2024-2025 season.