Virginia Cavaliers

2023-2024 Result: 23-11 (13-7 ACC), 10 Seed, First Four appearance

Projected Starting Lineup

Head Coach: Ron Sanchez (1st season)

Guard: Dai Dai Ames (SO)

Guard: Isaac McKneely (JR)

Guard: Andrew Rohde (JR)

Forward: TJ Power (SO)

Center: Blake Buchanan (SO)

Key Losses

Ryan Dunn

Reece Beekman

Jacob Groves

Jordan Minor

Key Additions

Dai Dai Ames (Kansas State)

Jalen Warley (Florida State)

TJ Power (Duke)

Elijah Saunders (San Diego State)

Jacob Cofie (4-star recruit)

Defense is never really a concern with a Tony Bennett led group, but losing 2 of the best defenders in the country in Reece Beekman and Ryan Dunn will definitely lead to a setback on that end. Bennett did bring in some solid replacements in Dai Dai Ames, Jalen Warley and Elijah Saunders, but I struggle to see how the Cavaliers finish near their 6th ranked adjusted defensive rating from a season ago (per Torvik). Defensive rebounding will continue to be an issue, and their defensive turnover rate may not be in the top 50 again due to Dunn and Beekman going pro (3.0% and 4.1% stl rate respectively). I see this unit finishing closer to 35th-40th defensively rather than top 10 again.

The offensive end of the floor is where there are major concerns. Poor offense has been a theme for Bennett led teams in the last few seasons and especially last year (207th adj offense per Torvik). Bennett’s offenses are typically predicated on off ball screening actions to get shooters open, but there may not be enough of those types of players to maximize his offensive schemes. Isaac McKneely is obviously an elite movement shooter, but defenses will pay a lot of attention to him if he’s the only great shooter on the floor. We haven’t seen much from Duke transfer TJ Power, but he projects as another shooter to help out this offense. Dai Dai Ames (who I am fairly high on as a prospect) and Jalen Warley will need to be elite creators for the Cavaliers to improve offensively from a year ago, but I like their play styles more in an offense that gives them more freedom with a faster style of play, and that certainly isn’t what Bennett’s offense entails. 

This Virginia team was never viewed as a lock to make the NCAA tournament, but I am certainly lower on the Cavaliers than the consensus. The defense taking a step back along with the disaster potential on the offensive end creates a not so optimistic view. Unless the shooting is better than expected, anticipate a long season ahead in Charlottesville.

Note: As of 10/17, Tony Bennett announced his retirement and has been replaced by associate head coach, Ron Sanchez. Most of the following opinions on the Cavaliers still stand as Sanchez will implement a similar style that Bennett did.